Poke Probability — Support

Poke Probability is an iPhone calculator for card draw probabilities and estimated match records. No account or in-app purchase is required. The current public version 1.1 has no ads. The planned version 1.2 release includes banner advertising.

Hand odds

Enter the deck size, opening hand size, additional draws and only the cards you want to check. Give each card a copy count, a minimum count to draw and a Basic Pokémon flag. Add the number of other Basic Pokémon; the remaining cards are calculated automatically. Each row represents a distinct category: do not enter the same card twice.

Choose All (AND) or Any (OR). With mulligan conditioning enabled, the opening hand must contain at least one Basic Pokémon. A Basic Pokémon in an additional draw does not make the opening hand valid. Results use combinations and sampling without replacement. Card effects, playability, search targets and prize cards are not modeled.

Limits: 1–100 cards in the deck, at most 30 total cards drawn and 12 conditions. A requested minimum above the number of copies gives 0%.

Swiss rounds

Enter each opponent deck’s metagame share and your estimated win rate. The remaining share becomes Other, with an editable win rate. The app calculates the weighted win rate, every win/loss record, expected wins and the chance of reaching your selected win target.

This is a binomial approximation: matches are independent and use the same opponent distribution and win rate each round. Actual Swiss pairings change with results. Draws, byes, opponent tiebreakers and qualification by ranking are excluded. Reaching a win target does not guarantee qualification. Limits: 0–100 rounds and 30 named opponent decks.

Inputs and saved settings

Use your region’s decimal separator without digit grouping. Percentages are rounded; a very small nonzero result can display as 0.00%. Inputs are saved locally and retained when changing languages. Names you enter are not translated. Edit fields or remove rows to change saved data. Deleting the app removes its local data; device backups follow Apple’s settings.

Report a problem

Use GitHub Issues for support. Please include the app version, iOS version, language/region, steps and sample numeric inputs. Issues are public: do not include personal information, private deck notes or unredacted screenshots. A GitHub account is needed to post an issue, but not to use the app.

Poke Probability is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, Creatures or GAME FREAK. Source and creator credits are available in App information.

Version 1.1 includes Hand odds, Swiss rounds, advanced calculations and historical tournament simulations. The sections below explain their assumptions and limits.

Version 1.1: language and card scope

Card names, official deck imports, bundled attributes and verified effects use Japanese card information. English UI does not imply support for matching overseas card versions, their effects or regional legality. Card names remain in their source language. The basic draw calculator accepts your own distinct categories without looking up cards.

Version 1.1: advanced calculations

The supported 60-card fixed-policy model enumerates draw allocations exactly, subject to its calculation budget. An exhausted budget produces no probability. The small-deck laboratory is not a real-game probability. Effect resolution and flexible board/hand goals use Monte Carlo estimates. The displayed 95% interval covers sampling uncertainty only, not model error. These are fixed-policy results, not optimal-play probabilities. Evolution, retreat, switching, opposing disruption and unsupported effects are excluded. Unsupported or unclassified effects must be resolved before calculation.

Board and hand conditions use the same trial and checkpoint. Cards moved to the Bench are no longer in hand. Random seeds vary each run; a specified seed requires identical inputs and policy version for reproduction. Card names alone do not identify effects. Verified Japanese card IDs can supply known attributes; any unmodeled effect remains excluded.

Version 1.1: historical tournament simulation

Bundled Limitless Labs snapshots cover ten completed in-person Masters events collected on October 4–5, 2026, including Recife. They are historical data for their source locations, dates and card pools. Changing device language or region does not change the data. They do not represent every region's current metagame. Event selection shows the source, retrieval date, card pool and unverified best-of conditions. Multiple or unverified conditions require explicit opt-in.

Participant and W/L/T counts are pooled; repeated participation counts as separate entries. Missing matchups use an explicit draw prior with symmetric remaining win/loss probability. Swiss pairing and top-cut rules are approximations. Intentional draws, drops, official time-limit rulings, skill and turn-order differences are excluded. Per-player qualification/win estimates and whole-field shares have different denominators. Approximate 95% Monte Carlo error is computed by tournament and excludes uncertainty in source data and missing-data assumptions. A zero estimate or interval does not prove impossibility.

Version 1.1: optional official import

Only when requested, deck import connects to Japan's pokemon-card.com public deck page using the deck code you enter. Imported names, counts, categories and card version IDs are saved locally after confirmation. Card images and effect text are not fetched. Use text input if the page format or network request cannot be handled. See the privacy policy for information sent to the destination.